English PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION RESULTS 2021

 

PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION RESULTS

 

In the last three Parliamentary by-elections in a row the vote for the Conservative Party has dropped but not in the way that has been suggested in the Media, which insists upon talking about majorities when there are none. 

 

In the recent by-election in Shropshire North the majority did not vote.  Nor did the majority vote in either of the previous two by-elections, with turnout below 50%.  “Turnout” does not take account of the fact that the Electoral Commission thinks that up to 25% of those that are eligible to vote are not on the electoral roll.  So really a significant majority do not vote.

 

In Shropshire North what happened was very similar to what had happened in the Chesham and Amersham By-election which is that the Liberal Democrats pursued a successful two-pronged strategy.  The first of those was to suppress the Conservative vote, which Johnson’s behaviour no doubt enormously helped them to do.  The second was to get the “Progressive” vote to coalesce around them.  This can easily be seen from the figures. 

 

In the 2019 General Election in Shropshire North, the Liberal Democrats got 5,643, Labour got 12,495 and the Greens got 1,790, giving a total Leftist vote of 19,928.  I am not sure whether the Shropshire Party who also stood would qualify as a Leftist Party.  Most of these parties which appear to be locally patriotic turn out on investigation to be Liberal Democrats in mufti.  So the total of LibDem, Labour and Green was 19,928, including the Shropshire Party that would be 21,074 vote. 

 

On the 16^th December the Liberal Democrats got 17,957, Labour got 3,686 and the Greens got 1,738.  Rejoin the EU got 58 votes.  Interestingly when the Liberal Democrats were pushing for a surge the Shropshire Party did not stand, which I think may suggest that they are simply Liberal Democrats in mufti.  The total Leftist vote therefore in the By-election was 23,439.  The total extra votes for the Left therefore in the Shropshire By-election was 2,365.

 

By contrast the numbers of voters voting Conservative dropped from 35,444 to 12,032.  This was a reduction in the total number of Conservative votes by 23,412. 

 

18,439 of whom was the reduction in turn-out of Conservative voters.  There was also 1,427 Reform, 378 UKIP, 375 Reclaim and 79 Heritage, who all might previously have been Conservative voters. 

 

It does seem clear therefore that relatively few, if any, voters actually went from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.  Whereas the tactical voting was in favour of the Liberal Democrats. 

 

That leads to at least the encouraging conclusion that the numbers of deluded Left-wing voters in Shropshire North did not increase by any substantial margin, despite what the papers and BBC have tried to tell you!

 

 

 

 

 

RESULTS FROM OLD BEXLEY & SIDCUP BY-ELECTION ON THE 2ND DECEMBER 2021

THE RESULTS FROM OLD BEXLEY & SIDCUP BY-ELECTION ON THE 2^ND DECEMBER 2021

 

This was a By-election in which there were two Party Leaders taking part and also the reputation of the Conservative Party Government was at stake. 

 

The recently deceased MP, James Brokenshire, was someone, who (like many Conservative MPs) was selected by his Party and elected on the basis that he was a Eurosceptic.  Once elected he proved in fact to be a Remainer who became a May loyalist and he actively worked to undermine the EU Referendum result. 

 

He was also like most Conservative MPs carrying on mass immigration whilst dishonestly maintaining that they are trying to do something about it!

 

There was therefore plenty of good reason for Conservative voters to refuse to turnout to vote for the Conservative Party and for his replacement, Louie French, who seems to be cut from very much the same cloth. 

 

There was also the dismal performance of Labour nationally and Kier Starmer, in particular, who is a lacklustre Leader.  Labour’s full-on support for Refugees Welcome and all the Multi-Culturalist agenda has now largely got through to even the least engaged White Working Class voter!

 

Many LibDem voters also have given up on their former Party on the basis that they actively sought to betray the democratic vote of the country to Leave the EU.

 

There were therefore very good reasons why the vote in this By-election would be suppressed. 

 

Sure enough if we look at the results which I set out here there was a massive drop in turnout and a drop in the votes of those parties that stood in the election last time. 

 

                                                                      Votes in                 Votes in

                                                                      2021                      2019

 

34% turnout           69.8% turnout

 

Conservatives                                                11,189                   29,786

Labour                                                           6,711                     10,834

Richard Tice - Reform UK                             1,432                    

Greens                                                           830                        1,477

Lib Dem                                                        647                        3,822

Elaine Cheeseman - English Democrats     271

UKIP                                                             184

Rejoin EU                                                      151

David Kurten – Heritage                                116

Christian Peoples Alliance                             108

MRL                                                             94

 

No drop in turnout greater though than the Conservative drop.  Their candidate was elected on First Past The Post but he got only slightly over a third of the votes that they got last time in 2019 and only about 17% of the electorate voted for him.

 

What of the two Party Leader candidates?  David Kurten and his newly created Heritage Party only got a dismal 116 votes, despite an active campaign and a full leaflet drop using the Royal Mail free leaflet drop facility which is available for parliamentary candidates.  His result for a Party Leader in an area close to his home gives pause for thought as to whether it is worth standing in any further elections for them (particularly with such a non-descript Party title!).

                                                                                                            

There was also Richard Tice of the re-badged Brexit Party, now calling itself the meaningless and Leftist sounding name of Reform UK.  He had a light blue rosette but very deep pockets.  From what I could see it looks likely that he spent the maximum spending allowance in a By-election of £100,000.  He had a fully paid and quite a large team of perhaps twenty odd leafleters and canvassers and lots of leaflets, including a 20 page plus booklet, but still only managed 1,432 votes! 

 

Given the amount of money that must be in the bank account following the company when it was called the Brexit Party taking £17.5m during the last EU election, I would expect them to turn up regularly at By-elections and not make any headway, despite massive spending. 

 

With Elaine Cheeseman, standing for the English Democrats, we had an excellent candidate, who, if elected, could have done a very good job as an MP. 

 

We did however suffer from problems with our normal printer who let us down.  We were then rushing to catch up and, although Royal Mail did a reasonable job, we probably only got leaflets distributed to a third of the constituency. 

 

Nevertheless the result we got for a really very small spend of just over £1,000 is, I think, credible and certainly shows that if we had got all our leaflets delivered and were able to equal the leafleting efforts of Richard Tice and Co we would probably have beaten him easily.

 

The other Right of Centre contender was UKIP, who got 184 votes, despite having a full leaflet drop, demonstrating again that they are electorally over!

 

Our next By-election would seem to be likely in Southend West which can now be called at any time. 

 

We want to do well in that election, which we may well be able to do, given that the other “Mainstream” parties have announced that they are not standing, as has Richard Tice’s, UK Reform Party.  This will give us a good opportunity which would be a shame to miss.  Please do help us raise enough money to do a good job.