17 WEEKS TO 23RD JUNE - UK’S INDEPENDENCE DAY?
Some people have pointed out that the day after the EU Referendum vote on the 23rd June, when hopefully the result will be announced, is the day on which the blockbuster film sequel “Independence Day 2” is being launched. Let’s hope that is a prophetic coincidence!
Now that the referendum campaign has in effect started inevitably we have had the Remain camp talking up “Project Fear” to try and start frightening people to stay within the EU.
Their argument is that leaving the EU is a jump into the unknown by the country and that those in favour of Leave will be unable to say what exactly the deal will be. This is of course true and it is no use denying it, although arguments can be put forward to show that the risk is not really as serious as is being suggested.
Nevertheless since it is true that those in favour of Leave cannot be precise as to what the arrangements will be it is, in my view, necessary for those arguing for Leave to talk about the uncertainties of remaining within the EU
Whilst the BBC etc. have been keen to publicise the uncertainties of Leave what hasn’t been so well publicised is the uncertainties of Remain.
In particular do we want England broken up into the EU “Regions”? Do we want the UK to become twelve EU “Regions” within a Federal EU? Do we want an EU army? Do we want an EU police force? Do we want an EU judicial system? That is if the progress to “ever closer union” continues.
In the alternative there may be a messy breakdown as further problems with the Greek bailout becomes critical again and with the imminence of financial collapse in the Italian banks. Quite apart from those other parts of the EU which look more likely to want to leave, such as France if Marie Le Pen wins the Presidential election next year? What do you think?
I have also been thinking of what slogan would appeal to English nationalists that has people thinking about this kind of issue and I suggest:-
‘Stop the EU breaking up England. Vote to Leave
What do you think?
For English nationalists there is also the very interesting prospect that many of the likely scenarios in the EU Referendum will undermine the UK. Here is an extremely useful and interesting article by Professor Rose of Strathclyde University which sets this out and in which he has crunched the numbers for us:-
Will the EU referendum trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom?
If England drags Scotland out of the EU, there will be trouble. But if Scotland keeps England inside, it could be double.
On the night of the EU referendum, there will be three counts that matter. The first will show whether there is an overall British majority for staying in or leaving the EU. The second will show whether English voters are on the winning or the losing side. The third will show how likely it is that the United Kingdom will stay together.
That might sound drastic to some readers. But large differences in support for the EU among different nations of the UK mean that many potential results are bad for the Union. Unless England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all agree in their answers to the referendum question, factions in each will be able to reject the result as illegitimate.
England contributes five sixths of the British electorate. To produce a UK majority for leaving the EU, regardless of the preference of other Britons, would therefore require 61 percent of English voters to endorse Brexit.
Opinion polls, however, show English voters tend to be evenly divided, and often in favour of Brexit. Even if a British poll reported 51 per cent in favour of remaining in the EU, a majority of English respondents would be in favour of Brexit. This is because other UK nations are much more pro-European.
The National Centre for Social Research calculates that 55 per cent of Welsh, 64 per cent of Scots and 75 per cent of Ulster voters endorse the European Union on the basis of more than a dozen polls taken in the past year.
These numbers are also more stable than the equivalent figures in England.
So collectively, Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish voters will contribute about 11 per cent of the pro-EU vote. English voters would only have to add another 40 per cent to the UK total to create an absolute majority keeping the UK in Europe. But that would mean most English voters had endorsed leaving the European Union – only to have their wishes overriden by the other UK nations.
On the other hand, if 53 per cent of English voters voted to leave the EU, this would be enough to take the UK out of Europe against the preference of a majority of Scots, Welsh and Ulster voters.
The only result which would keep the UK united would be a narrow English majority in favour of remaining in the EU. In that scenario, all four parts of the United Kingdom were of one mind. For this to be true we would expect to see a UK-wide majority of more than 53 per cent.
On the basis of current polling, that is unlikely. Of 30 major British polls I have analysed, only ten reported a pro-EU majority so large that most English respondents agreed with their fellow Britons. An additional 13 polls showed majorities of up to 53 percent in favour of remaining in the EU, but such a narrow lead implies that most English people would be held in Europe against their will. And seven of the 30 polls actually showed enough English opposition to the EU to overpower the other nations' leads.
A conflict between Britain's nations on future relations with the EU would be a huge headache to the Prime Minister. Part of the argument for Scottish independence in 2014 was that England would no longer be able to "impose" decisions on Scotland. An English-led withdrawal of the UK from the European Union could trigger another referendum in Scotland on the linked issues of leaving the UK and joining Europe. That would confront the Westminster government with simultaneously negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from Europe and Scotland’s withdrawal from the UK.
Yet the opposite outcome – a UK majority to remain in the EU, and an English majority to leave – would also be a nightmare for Downing Street. Conservative Eurosceptics could denounce the result as illegitimate, but it would be politically impossible for the Eurosceptics to win a referendum on the issue of England withdrawing from the United Kingdom.
Even if a narrow English majority went along with other Britons and voted to stay in the EU, there could still be an absolute majority of Conservatives voting to leave. Determined Eurosceptics could then adopt Jeremy Corbyn's doctrine that the party leader should represent his party's members. This argument could be used as a weapon to extract promises of further anti-EU actions from Cabinet ministers wanting to succeed David Cameron as the next Conservative prime minister.
Whatever the feelings of English voters on the emotive issue of Europe, there is no escaping the fact that the outcome of the forthcoming EU referendum will be decided by the total vote of the United Kingdom. That is the price England pays for being British.
Richard Rose is a professor of public policy at University of Strathclyde Glasgow and a commissioning fund awardee of The UK in a Changing Europe
Click here for the original article>>> Will the EU referendum trigger the break-up of the United Kingdom? - Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12114578/Will-the-EU-referendum-trigger-the-break-up-the-United-Kingdom.html
I have heard the view that the pro-EU vote in Scotland may not be as large as the SNP think. So there is no guarantee that a majority will vote to stay in. I do not have a problem with the possibility of Scotland having another independence referendum and leaving if the votes in England and Scotland conflict as most English nationalists would welcome the English independence that this would bring about. However, the great problem would be border control. This has already been mentioned with regard to Ulster and the Irish Republic should the former vote to leave the EU. Living around 50 miles from the Scottish border, I face the prospect of a Hungary style fence in order to control illegal immigration into England via Scotland or even boatloads of refugees arriving on the southern shore of the Solway.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the possibility of a Brexit has stirred up those on the Continent who have realised that they, too, could be free of the EU. Serbia has now withdrawn its application to join, doubtless sick of EU anti-Russian policy. By the way, my friend, Coudenhove-Kalergi said that the EU would ultimately be controlled by the United States or perhaps that should be Wall Street. The Czech Prime Minister is rumoured to have said that he favours a Czexit, although government officials have now denied this and the Dutch and the French are demanding referenda as well. 50% of the Greeks think that the EU has done them no good at all. So the unwieldy Marxist empire is beginning to sway and creak. As for the Czechs and the Hungarians, they have suddenly woken up to the realisation that their freedom, less than one hundred years' old, has been taken away from them again by the 21st version of the Austro-Hungarian Empire that is the EU. In between they have been forced into the Third Reich and the Soviet Union. Now they have decided that it really is time to be free.
I don't think we will ever get to the point of Europe of the Regions as the old sovereign nation states are reasserting themselves. But didn't we all know that that was what would happen? All Empires collapse in the end as they are against human nature where tribes want their own patch of land to rule for themselves. The same goes for multiculturalism. As nations rebuild themselves then that other bit of Marxist nonsense will come under attack as well. As the Vlaams Belang have said, we must make the countries of origin of these people into places where they can live in dignity and prosperity following their own culture.
This will only happen when the industrial-military complex stops destroying them. I was interested to see that the European Parliament voted to suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia. This is where we do need a supranational overlay above an EFTA style Europe so that the likes of Cameron can be forced to stop supporting a vile country like Saudi Arabia and selling it the arms with no moral compass to carry out its Sunni Salafist policies.
I have no problem with a European parliament continuing where Europeans can get together to discuss matters of mutual interest.
Finally, I was watching Bombay Railway last night. Nobody but Indians, nothing but Indian culture. That is fine provided that those from the Indian sub-continent and elsewhere form the third world who have been invited by Coudenhove-Kalergi adherents to colonise Europe understand that Europeans have a right to a national identity just like theirs as well.
Well at least the EU Parliament got something right. If only they would just ditch the Coudenhove-Kalergi plans it might not be so intolerable.
DeleteHow about "Don't believe the Codswallop!" as a slogan?
ReplyDeleteFor example, some army types were reported as claiming that we would be safer in the EU. We could reply, "CODSWALLOP! The hoards of migrants from Syria and elsewhere include jihadis who simply have to wait for a German passport to be able to come here and wreak havoc. Our security comes from NATO and not the EU."
Clive,
W-s-M.
NATO has now said that they will have to take over the role of dealing with the refugees from the police. George Soros was behind their arrival and the ultimate aim is to create a need for martial law. NATO is just the bankers' private army and a destination for the products of the booming arms trade. TTIP is being pushed forward by the likes of Cameron. There seems to be now no way to stop these people. If it goes through then the EU and North America will be the ultimate police states for the benefit of big business and big banks. The only hope is that the EU will collapse first so rendering any trade agreement with the US null and void. But doubtless Cameron et al of the Coudenhove-Kalergi aristocracy have thought of that one in the drafting of the agreement so that individual countries are still bound by it. So it will still be bye-bye to the NHS unless we can get rid of Cameron and his oligarchic totalitarian chums.
DeleteI was interested to hear the ex-ambassador to Syria, Peter Ford, who is so outspoken against the policy of the New World Order that I hope he has the security to match it or he might go the same way as those who spoke out against the BBC paedophile ring, say last night that Cameron and his tribe have stoked up Russophobia as a reason for preserving the EU of big banks and big business and also for renewing trident for the benefit of his arms manufacturing friends. If you look at Cameron this is all you see, bankers, big corporations and arms manufacturers. But then his ancestors made a fortune through financing wars with the Rothschilds. He hasn't a care for the poor, the needy and those murdered in the process.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the Syrian ceasefire is meant to have come into effect. But nobody seems to be able to control or want to control Turkey and Saudi Arabia and we learn that CIA policy was to arm the moderates so that those arms would reach Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
But there was an interesting comment. John Kerry is now talking about the partition of Syria, even leaving a part as an ISIL caliphate. Somebody said that Israel's aim is to create a Sunni corridor to cut off the route from Iran to the Golan Heights. And that Israel's aim is to cause the fragmentation of all Muslim countries; divide and rule. This is meant to be what Greater Israel is all about. And in view of the Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan it is presumably what the multiculturalisation of white countries is all about. The strongest countries are those that are ethnically, culturally and religiously homogeneous and they know this. This is managed chaos worldwide. This is why they hate Putin, Orban, Trump and any man who is not their puppet. They rely on the weak and weasel-like with no cojones like the EU leadership - Angela Merkel probably, Thatcher-style, has more cojones than any of them, even though she hasn't, if you see what I mean - the last two NATO Secretary Generals and the bulk of western politicians. Their Coudenhove-Kalergi Marxism/Facism has now totally feminised Europe's leaders that, barring Viktor Orban, they haven't a clue how to deal with George Soros's "refugees".